Will Putin call it quits in Donbas?
How will Europe’s reluctant warriors react to a stalemate?
With Macron, Scholz and Draghi all ruminating openly about a ceasefire in the Ukraine war, two maps tell the story of a potential endgame. The first (below) is the story of Russia’s strategic defeat…
The yellow areas show the territory reconquered by Ukraine, after Putin’s attempt to conquer, partition and “puppet” Ukraine in a lightning war failed abysmally.
Given most of this was achieved without heavy weapons and ammunition supplied by the West, it is what gives the “total Ukrainian victory” camp of analysts confidence. With the M777s arriving, with ammunition factories Putin cannot bomb, and a million territorial reservists in training, it is possible to envisage retaking Kherson in weeks, Mariupol in months.
Once the second-phase Russian attack on Donbas has “culminated”, goes the argument, Putin’s operational defeat will be complete. The danger is that his forces dig in, so Ukraine must go on the offensive as soon as possible.
The second map (below from ISW) demonstrates the counter-argument: an operational stalemate in Donbas triggers a unilateral Russian ceasefire that throws the West into disarray, achieving geopolitical victory for the Kremlin.
