To Avoid Another Munich, Europe Must Act to Secure Ukraine

Open Letter. Sunday 3 November 2024

10 min readNov 10, 2024

[This is the text of an open letter issued by more than 100 senior military and security experts, politicians and diplomats on 3 November, together with the latest signatories. The authors are currently working on a new initiative in response to the US election result.]

For nearly a thousand days, Ukraine has resisted full-scale Russian aggression: the heroism of its armed forces and its people stand as an example to all free nations. But as the US election approaches, Ukraine and its allies face a twin strategic danger.

The first is that an incoming Trump administration will attempt to impose a deal with Russia detrimental to Ukraine’s interests, and to European security. This would leave Ukraine adrift from NATO and the EU, in a condition of fake neutrality — and Europe with a destabilizing geopolitical greyzone in the heart of the continent.

The second is that an incoming Harris administration will continue with the policies of stasis and red lines, which have to date withheld the capabilities with which Ukraine could win the war. In this scenario, the fatalism of key European governments who refuse to believe Ukraine can win, and are tempted to commit — at best — only to the bolstering of NATO defence in response to a Ukrainian defeat, could become decisive within the alliance, while damaging its credibility.

In both cases the parallels with the 1938 Munich Agreement are clear: it would be a false ‘peace’ achieved through European acquiescence in the dismembering of a sovereign state, and would leave that state unable to defend itself against future aggression, while buying an unacceptably small amount of time for our own rearmament. It would be likely to lead to a wider and even more destructive war.

In the first scenario, such a deal would be Trump’s Munich. In the second it would be — collectively as Europeans — our Munich.

The signatories of this appeal, which is being circulated privately among policymakers in the NATO alliance, are convinced that a third course is possible, which can lead to Ukraine’s survival as a sovereign state and Russia’s defeat. This is not only the right thing to do; it is the best way to secure Europe in the short-term and buy ourselves time to build the capabilities we need to defend ourselves in future.

Our belief is premised on five grounds.

1. The inevitability of Russia prevailing is a myth. Russia cannot sustain its war effort at current levels beyond 2025. For example, Russia is losing 260 heavy caliber cannon barrels (artillery and tank) per month and can produce only 20.[1] Likewise,

Russia is losing an average of 144 infantry fighting vehicles per month, yet can produce only 17.[2] For these items of equipment, as with many others, Russia is scheduled to exhaust its stockpiles in the second half of 2025.

There is no credible plan for Ukrainian (or European) security after any ‘ceasefire’. The Putin regime has demonstrated time and again that it is not a credible negotiating partner and that it cannot be trusted to keep to any ‘deal’ that it signs. Yet Ukraine’s route into NATO — the only truly credible security guarantee in the medium term — is blocked and there are no compelling alternative offers yet on the table. If this continues to be the case, a ceasefire only buys Russia time to reconstitute its forces, while European allies have not yet kicked their own production into gear, leaving us at a major disadvantage.
Failing to win endangers all European allies. A ‘Minsk III’ (or Munich II) agreement, reached in full knowledge that it was the failure of Western willpower that obligated it, would neither guarantee Ukraine’s stability nor enhance the security of its European neighbours. To the contrary, demographic models suggest it would create a new refugee crisis in Europe and require uplifts of European defence spending well above any currently envisaged. It would also signal weakness and a lack of resolve that only invite coercion upon us.
The route to Ukrainian victory still exists. This is well understood in defence ministries across European NATO states. Using new military technology we can quickly leverage Europe’s industrial capacity to build the capabilities Ukraine needs to disable Russia’s war machine. For example, building a massed precision strike force for Ukraine, with no external restrictions on its targeting, is within our grasp. To realise this goal, we must, however, strategically focus our support around a clear theory of victory.
Those who want to act, can. The means to victory do not require sign-off at the level of the 32-country NATO alliance but can be provided by a coalition of willing powers, including all those committed to Ukraine’s recovery of its currently occupied territory and then to providing Kyiv with real security guarantees.[3] These are the countries that understand that our own security is dependent on defeating Russia in Ukraine and thus buying ourselves time to boost our deterrence. They understand that we still can, and must, act in the name of our security and freedom — and that if we do so in ways that change facts and policy on the ground, others will follow.
With the US election looming, time is of the essence. We are launching this appeal today because it is essential that European capitals arm themselves with a real contingency plan — both in the event of a Trump victory, a withdrawal of support and pressure exerted on Ukraine to accept permanent neutrality and territorial concession, or in the event of a Harris victory and the continuation of a policy that would fail to secure Ukraine and thus endanger Europe.

The course of action we propose is, for a coalition of willing nations within NATO to commit to enhance military and financial support to Kyiv and to recommit to the aim of a sovereign Ukraine within its borders recognised by international law, focused around a clear strategy and theory of victory. This is necessary to avoid any immediate detrimental effects in Ukraine after the election, which would aid Russia, to live up to our alliance commitments and to take responsibility for our own security.

Signatories *

Prof. Sir Hew Strachan, University of St. Andrews and Special Advisor to the Joint Parliamentary Committee on the National Security Strategy
Lt. Gen. (retd.) David A. Deptula, United States Air Force, Dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Power Studies
Gen. (retd.) Michael V. Hayden, fmr. CIA and NSA Director
Maj. Gen. (retd.) Mick Ryan AM, fmr. Commandant, Australian Defence College
Air Marshal (retd.) Edward Stringer, Royal Air Force
Air Marshal (retd.) Greg Bagwell, Royal Air Force
Vice-Admiral (retd.) Didier Piaton, French Navy, fmr. Deputy Commander, NATO Maritime Command, current Assoc. Professor
Toomas Hendrik Ilves, President of Estonia (2006–2016); Professor, Tartu University
The Rt. Hon. Sir David Lidington, fmr. UK Minister of State for Europe and Deputy to the Prime Minister. Chair, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)
Hon. ChrisAlexander PC, former Minister for Citizenship and Immigration, Parliamentary Secretary for National Defence and Canadian Ambassador to Afghanistan
General The Lord Dannatt, GCB, CBE, NC, DL, former Chief of the General Staff (UK)
Prof. Eliot Cohen, former Counsellor of the Department of State (USA)
Prof. Phillips O’Brien, UniversityofSt.Andrews
Dr. Artis Pabriks, fmr. Foreign and Defence Minister of Latvia
Michael Roth MP, Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the GermanBundestag and former German Secretary of State for European Affairs
Dr Konstantin von Notz MP, Chair of the Intelligence Oversight Committee & Deputy Chair of the Green Party Parliamentary Group in the German Bundestag
Dr Anton HofreiterMP, Chair of the European Affairs Committee of the GermanBundestag
Thomas Erndl MP, Vice-Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the German Bundestag
Sara Nanni MP, Defence Spokesperson for the GreenParty, GermanBundestag
Dr Sebastian Schaefer MP, Budget & Defence Special Fund Committees of the German Bundestag
Edward Lucas, CEPA Senior Fellow & Columnist, The Times
Dr.AnnaWieslander, Director for NorthernEurope, Atlantic Council and Chair of theBoard, ISDP.
Nicolas Tenzer, guest professor at Sciences Po Paris, author of Our War: Crime and Oblivion
Prof Carlo Masala, University of the Bundeswehr, Munich.
Żygimantas Pavilionis MP, Deputy Speaker of the Lithuanian Parliament.
Marko Mihkelson MP, Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Estonian Parliament
Margaret Attwood, writer
Dr Benjamin Tallis, Director, Democratic Strategy Initiative, Berlin
James Rogers, Co-Founder, CouncilonGeostrategy
Paul Mason, Journalist and Author
Larry Pfeiffer, fmr. CIA Chief of Staff
Dr Rob Johnson, fmr. director of the UK Secretary of State’s Office for Net Assessment and Challenge (SONAC), Fellow, Pembridge College Oxford
Dr Mike MartinMP, Member Defence Select Committee, Senior War Studies Fellow, KCL
Prof. Stephen Gethins MP, University of St Andrews and UK House of Commons
Derk Boswijk MP, Foreign Affairs Committee of the Parliament of the Kingdom of the Netherlands
Chantal Kopf MP, European Affairs Committee of the German Bundestag
Robin Wagener MP, Head of the German-Ukrainian Parliamentary Friendship Group
The Hon. Senator Ratna Omidvar, Senator for Ontario, Senate of Canada
The Hon. Senator Dr. Stanley Kutcher, Independent Senator for Nova Scotia, Senateof Canada
The Hon. Senator Donna Dasko, Senator for Ontario, Senate of Canada
Pavel Fischer, Senator for Prague & fmr Czech Ambassador to France
Gusty Graas MP, Luxembourg Chamber of Deputies
Adam Kinzinger, Former member, US House of Representatives
Dr Slawomir Debski, former Director Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) & Visiting Professor, College of Europe, Natolin
Britta Jacob, Senior Fellow, Democratic Strategy Initiative, Berlin
John Sipher, fmr. CIA clandestine service & Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Iain Martin, Director, London Defence Conference
Stewart McDonald, former MP for Glasgow South, former SNP spokesperson for defence
Dr Nona Mikhelidze, SeniorFellow, EU, PoliticsandInstitutions (EUandEastern Neighbourhood) Global Actors (Russia), Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI)
James Sherr OBE, International Centre for Defence Studies, Tallinn
Ian Bond, Deputy Director, Centre for European Reform
Prof. Kristen Harkness, Director, Institute for the Study of War & Strategy, University of St. Andrews
Dr Emma Salisbury, SeniorFellow, CouncilonGeostrategy
Minna Alander, Research Fellow, Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Dr Gustav Gressel, Senior Fellow European Council on Foreign Relations, Berlin
Aaron Gasch Burnett, Fellow and Project Manager, Democratic Strategy Initiative, Berlin
Dr Jan-Willem Roepert, Lt.Col (ret.) Bundeswehr & Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Democratic Strategy Initiative, Berlin
Dr Riccardo Alcaro, Head, Global Actors Programme, Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI)
Dr Balkan Devlen,Transatlantic Program Director & Senior Fellow, Macdonald-Laurier Institute
Roman Waschuk, fmr. Canadian Ambassador to Serbia and to Ukraine
Ralph Goff, fmr. CIA station chief
Paul Kolbe, fmr. CIA station chief & Senior Fellow, Harvard University Belfer Center
Dr David Priess, fmr. CIA Officer
Marc Polymeropoulos, CIA (retd.0
Alex Finley (pen name), Author and CIA (retd.)
Ed Bogan, CIA (retd.)
Jacob Kaarsbo, Independent Security Policy Advisor and former Danish intelligence officer.
Denver Riggelman, fmr member, US House of Representatives & fmr US Air Force intelligence officer
Terry Virts, Colonel USAF (retd.) Former Astronaut and ISS Commander
Romana Vlahutin, Distinguished Fellow for Geostrategy, GMFUS
Rosemary Thomas, fmr. British Ambassador to Belarus
The Rt. Hon. Sir Roderic Lyne, fmr. British ambassador to Russia
Bryan Cartledge KCMG, fmr. UK Ambassador to the Soviet Union, 1985–1988
Remus Cernea, War Correspondent in Ukraine
Prof. Maximilian Terhalle, Visiting Scholar, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Prof. Andrew Orr, Military History, Kansas State University
Dr Sebastian Bruns, Senior Researcher, Institute for Security Policy, Kiel University
Dr Brendan Flynn, International Relations, University of Galway
Prof.OmarOscarAshour,DohaInstituteforGraduateStudiesandUniversityofExeter
Michael Weiss, Editor, The Insider
Dr Ruth Deyermond, King’s College London
Prof. Pierre Haroche, Université Catholique de Lille
Prof. Dr Thomas Jäger, University of Cologne
Dr Mathilde von Bülow, School of International Relations, University of St. Andrews
Prof. Jenny Raflik-Grenouilleau, University of Nantes
Marta Prochwicz, D/Head of Office & Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Viktorija Starych-Samuoliene, Co-Founder, Council on Geostrategy
Dr Jochen Kleinschmidt, Chair of International Politics, TU Dresden
Dr Alexander Lanoszka, Associate Professor, University of Waterloo
Dr Ian Garner, Assistant Professor, Pilecki Institute, Warsaw
Prof. Richard Whitman, Professor, University of Kent, Canterbury
Prof. Brendan Simms, Director, Centre for Geopolitics, University of Cambridge
H.I.Sutton, author and journalist
Dr Jade McGlynn, Senior Research Fellow, King’s College London
George Scutaru, CEO New Strategy Centre & fmr. National Security Advisor to the President of Romania
Dr Peter JS Duncan, Hon Associate Professor, School of Slavonic and East European Studies, UCL.
Dan Kaszeta, Fellow of the Royal Historical Society
Prof. Stefan Kolev, Ludwig Erhard Forum for Economy and Society, Berlin
TomaszMłynarski,PolishAmbassador(retd.)
Prof. Jean-Vincent Holeindre, Université Paris II Panthéon Assas
Romain Le Quiniou, Managing Director of Euro Créative, Think-tank specializing in Eastern Europe
Dr Kubilay Atik, Associate Prof. at Nevsehir Haci Bektas Veli University, Department of History
101.
Dr Matthew Ford, Associate Professor in War Studies, Swedish Defence University, Stockholm
Robert Dalsjö, Senior Defence Analyst, FOI, Stockholm
Roland Rogers, Researcher, Ocean Governance and Marine Autonomy
Vasabjit Banerjee, PhD, Assistant Professor, International Relations, University of Tennessee, Knoxville
Prof. Anna Muller, The Frank and Mary Padzieski Endowed Professor in Polish/PolishAmerican/Eastern European Studies, University of Kansas
Prof. Suzanne Orr, Associate Professor of History, University of Kansas
Prof. Jeannie Johnson, Department of Political Science, Utah State University.
Roderich Kiesewetter MP, Vice Chair of the Intelligence Oversight Committee of the German Bundestag.
Kathrin Göring-Eckardt MP, Vice President of the German Bundestag
Camille Grand, former Assistant Secretary General for Defence Investment NATO & Distinguished Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations
Dr Kristi Raik, Deputy Director, International Centre for Defence and Security
Dr Edward Hunter Christie, Senior Research Fellow, Finnish Institute of International Affairs

* In all cases, the institutional affiliation of each signatory is given for the purpose of identification and does not imply that the institution concerned endorses this open letter.

Notes

[1] Dylan Malyasov, ‘Russia faces artillery barrel shortage’, Defence Blog (18 July 2024); David Axe, ‘Russia Needs Fresh Artillery Barrels, Bad. It’s Yanking Them Off Old Guns By The Thousand’, Forbes (12 January 2024).
[2] Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds, ‘Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024’, RUSI (13 February 2024); Pavel Luzin, ‘Russia’s Kurganmashzavod Factory Data Shows the Limits of BMP-3 Production Rate’, Jamestown Eurasia Daily Monitor (22 July 2024).
[3] See, for example: James Rogers and William Freer, ‘The trilateral initiative: A minilateral to catalyse Russia’s defeat?’, Council on Geostrategy (24 September 2024); Benjamin Tallis ‘Security Guarantees for Ukraine’, DGAP (30 June 2023).

Links

The following links include a selection of the press coverage, versions of the letter in the Financial Times, Libération and Dagems Nyheter and the PDF in English and German with the original signatories.