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Putin’s nuclear threats…
How should the West respond?
On 30 September Vladimir Putin formally annexed four Ukrainian provinces. In the run up he released 200 POWs, mobilised 300,000 reservists and very probably sabotaged the Nordstream 1 and 2 pipeline. Both he and Dmitry Medvedev threatened explicitly to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine if it now continues its ground offensives against the seized territory.
In response the USA warned, both publicly and privately, that any use of nuclear weapons would bring “catastrophic consequences”. In this edition I will discuss what those consequences might be, and whether their deterrent threat is sufficient.
The form of words in Putin’s threat mirrors precisely the tactical nuclear warfare doctrine Putin promulgated in 2003 and updated in 2014 and 2020: nuclear weapons are to be used defensively:
to guarantee the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state and to deter a potential adversary from aggression against the Russian Federation.
By designating Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk provinces as “Russia”, Putin is awarding himself permission to initiate a “retaliatory-offensive strike” (otvetno-vstrechny udar).
However, I see Putin’s words and actions both as an attempt to de-escalate in Ukraine (for now) — freezing…
