After Kherson, what’s the end-game?
Are we approaching “half time” in the Russia-Ukraine war?
Over the Summer, a British defence minister is said to have told colleagues: “Ukraine needs to score a goal before half time”. The comment drew criticism not just for the crassness of the footballing metaphor, but because — as some defence insiders put it — “we are nowhere near half time”.
Since then, however, Ukraine has achieved numerous successes: the September counter-offensive that cleared Kharkiv oblast; the 8 October attack on the Kerch Strait bridge; the 29 October USV attack that forced Russia’s Black Sea Fleet into a defensive posture at Sevastopol, and — yesterday — the lightning seizure of Kherson, together with the whole right bank of the Dnepr.
The choreographed nature of the Russian withdrawal, the lack of apparent offensive pressure on the retreating forces by Ukraine, and a flurry of recent diplomatic activity all suggest that both Ukraine’s allies and Moscow itself may be looking for an excuse to pause and “freeze” the conflict.
What follows is partly conjectural, and partly based on discussions with official/expert sources. All the judgements are mine alone, and obviously open to contestation…
