Germany’s refusal to supply Leopard 2s is a disaster — Germany’s decision to block the large-scale transfer of Western-built main battle tanks to Ukraine will, like all its previous hesitations, eventually be eroded. But it’s a blow — not just to Ukraine, but to NATO and the collective Western response to Russian aggression. [UPDATE 23.01.23: Annalena Baerbock has given Poland…

A guide to the upcoming ‘Refresh’ of the Integrated Review — The Ukraine war has triggered a major review of British foreign policy but, yet again, the opposition parties are shut out until it’s over. Which is a pity because, as the record shows, the Labour Party party got it right first time. The Intergrated Review published in March 2021 (IR21)…

Left-wing Democrats need to stand up for international law — Imagine an alt-history of the Spanish Civil War where, after some initial reversals, the anti-fascist side starts winning. They drive back Franco’s armies largely because France, Britain and the USA reject “non-intervention” and send in heavy weapons, offsetting the support coming from Hitler and Mussolini. In this scenario, does anyone…

UK armed forces chief doubles down on Indo-Pacific strategy — There were three big takeaways from the Chief of the Defence Staff’s annual RUSI lecture, delivered last night. First, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin’s categoric statement that “Russia is losing” the Ukraine war. He warned Putin that: “Russia faces a critical shortage of artillery munitions. This means that their ability to…

You can’t win a war without a war economy — During the past three months, miners in Volyn have protested against what their leaders allege is management corruption. Nurses in Ivanovo Frankovsk have protested against unpaid wages. At the Lviv academy of Typography students demonstrated against the institution’s closure, as what they say is part of a World Bank-funded asset…

Summary of a RUSI report into Russia’s attack on Ukraine — When Russia invaded Ukraine, on 24 February, the units attacking Kyiv expected to achieve victory within 10 days, after which they would begin mopping up “scattered units” of resistance fighters. That’s according to a significant new report from RUSI, co-authored by two of the Institute’s own experts and two…

Britain’s security and prosperity do not revolve around the Malacca Strait — Last night Rishi Sunak abandoned Liz Truss’ pledge to designate China a “threat” to Britain’s national security. That is a welcome change from where both Truss and Boris Johnson were trying to take the UK’s relationship with the emerging superpower. Because there is a clear and present threat: Russia and…

The troubled story of Britain’s anti-ship missiles — The Royal Navy’s warships — described by MPs last year as “spiky herbivores” due to their lack of offensive capacity — look set to go carnivorous. On 23 November the Ministry of Defence announced it will acquire an unspecified number of the Norwegian-built Naval Strike Missile (NSM) to equip 11…

The politics of Tory self-destruction — Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement is set to plunge British living standards into a steep and sudden fall. Families will see their spending power drop by 7% in two years, as double-digit inflation combines with higher taxes to make them poorer. That won’t just wipe out all the wage growth of…